Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 193.830223 234.550388 284.728092 352.178492 442.166085 5.606207e+02 7.328021e+02
2025-06-08 140.708144 185.016933 246.260440 340.337215 487.569834 7.215207e+02 1.150942e+03
2025-06-15 122.433564 171.619610 246.072009 373.949928 604.765211 1.044878e+03 2.084019e+03
2025-06-22 104.582907 153.177431 231.576055 377.711947 672.257323 1.325783e+03 3.273359e+03
2025-06-29 93.196112 141.711767 224.436745 390.402888 761.515411 1.720192e+03 5.426125e+03
2025-07-06 82.256802 128.631906 211.096423 386.316577 812.617927 2.068355e+03 8.306701e+03
2025-07-13 78.239747 126.516352 216.840349 422.999708 982.678645 2.960819e+03 1.762364e+04
2025-07-20 74.180545 123.496777 219.999522 455.070928 1163.382277 4.182970e+03 4.100533e+04
2025-07-27 69.909068 119.306968 219.782066 479.052184 1339.326582 5.763166e+03 1.069416e+05
2025-08-03 65.555857 114.250551 216.629857 494.504239 1501.163635 7.728757e+03 3.341986e+05
2025-08-10 61.027032 108.182549 210.048668 498.443653 1625.639216 9.909564e+03 1.338899e+06
2025-08-17 56.228326 100.942573 199.512143 487.667381 1682.841010 1.182610e+04 7.227845e+06
2025-08-24 51.532011 93.572971 187.971960 472.207797 1719.101533 1.394367e+04 2.051777e+08
2025-08-31 47.366645 86.880959 177.070693 455.945572 1744.097757 1.628380e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 46.766726 87.807304 185.132118 505.738675 2188.291178 3.019114e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 44.255711 84.179495 180.911970 511.363638 2383.493546 4.303982e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 42.491261 82.031447 180.231856 530.276994 2706.248613 7.084961e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 40.011640 77.959292 173.671601 524.181437 2839.650487 9.802961e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 39.680242 78.884310 181.185143 579.204902 3610.690805 2.745189e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 39.039006 78.984842 186.396628 627.836329 4481.929381 9.790052e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 38.054014 78.123205 188.610477 664.509248 5365.571401 5.085521e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 36.808720 76.470566 188.117333 688.275285 6194.949257 6.491387e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 35.279504 73.939040 184.444882 694.351120 6806.389051 9.289380e+10 NaN